Why did Ireland drop their former captain?
Just over 12 months after stepping down as white ball skipper, Andrew Balbirnie has been dropped from the T20 side despite a decent run of form
Time waits for no man. Neither, would it seem, do Ireland under Heinrich Malan.
Just over 12 months after stepping down as white ball captain of his country, Andrew Balbirnie has been dropped from the Irish T20 side for the upcoming South Africa series. Ahead of the format’s next World Cup in 2026, Ireland have revamped the top of their order.
Balbirnie isn’t young. He’s 33. He will be 35 in 2026. It’s widely expected that he and Paul Stirling, who are the same age, will both bow out in 2027, either after a return to the ODI World Cup or another failed attempt to qualify for the first time in 12 years.
Since Ireland embraced a more aggressive T20 mindset at the start of Malan’s tenure in 2022, Balbirnie’s headline numbers have worsened. His career T20I average is 23.5, compared to 22.4 in the previous three seasons. His strike-rate has also come down, from a career figure of 123.2 to 118.5.
Yet some underlying numbers suggest Balbirnie is actually more productive. Since 2022, he has scored more sixes per innings compared to his career total (0.9 vs 0.6) while he has passed 50 more often, once every 6.1 innings compared to 8.8 for his career. By tapping into more boundary power, Balbirnie’s overall production has suffered, even if he is finding the big score more often.
How can someone who is hitting more sixes see his strike-rate come down? Herein may well lie the issue. He is hitting more boundaries, but, inevitably given these figures, it seems Balbirnie is facing more dot balls.
There are memorable examples. When passing 50 in a T20 against India at Malahide in 2022, at one point Balbirnie was on 31 off 21 balls. He had hit five sixes and one single, scoring off just six deliveries. Despite being on 31, he had faced 15 dots in 21 balls. On that occasion, his overall line was rescued by scoring a maximum nearly every time he did beat the fielders.
This is an extreme example of an all or nothing return. Across the board, Balbirnie has added greater power to his game in terms of boundary totals. But the speed of his run-scoring has dropped. In terms of overall value, does the diminishing strike-rate outweigh the benefit of the increased sixes output?
Yes, according to Malan and co, it would seem.
There are multiple ways of looking at the decision to drop one of Ireland’s most experienced batters. Either, it is a harsh hook as the player continues to adapt to a new style which has seen some positive underlying numbers; his strike-rate might eventually tick upwards, should the dot ball percentage come down.
Or, there is a line of thought that it is too late in the player’s career for him to have the success required atop an aggressive T20 line-up. Even if he is hitting more sixes, Balbirnie cannot bring with it his strike-rate, one of the most important numbers in T20 cricket.
As always, especially when it comes to long-time custodians of the green jersey, opinions will differ greatly.
The key question, though, is do Ireland have someone better to step into the opening role? The only merit in this decision is if whoever comes in can actually add more value.
Ireland have flirted with Ross Adair for some time. During last year’s three-match series with India, Adair was due to play in the third and final T20 only for rain to render play at Malahide impossible. He also stood in for Paul Stirling in the final T20 against Pakistan at Clontarf.
Adair’s international form has been so limited (just eight T20s) that it’s difficult to take much from numbers alone. His average isn’t good (19) but his strike-rate (134) is. At times, he has been found out too easily by top class bowlers when playing against Bangladesh and Pakistan to have earned the faith required to replace Balbirnie. A counter to that would be he needs a run of games first to earn such trust, hence the move has been made now.
However, Adair batted at five in his latest T20 for the Northern Knights. In that same game, the opposing Leinster Lightning line-up saw Lorcan Tucker open with Harry Tector at three. This, if I was a betting man, seems to be Ireland’s new order; Stirling and Tucker at the top, Tector at first drop.
For some time now, calls have been made for Tector to move up from four in T20s. In that regard, a move to three makes simple sense; have your best player face as many balls as possible.
Tucker opening is an interesting call, if that is what we will see. After a torrid year, he returned to form against Pakistan at number three. His aggressive, at times hyperactive starts could well be more effective when batting one position higher, facing more balls with the field up.
There is, of course, a spot at four now, should Tector move up. This allows for an extra batter to be included, should Ireland wish, or an additional bowler and everyone else moves up one. Based on the squad they have picked, the additional batter could be Ross Adair in a finishing role, or Neil Rock if they finally want to find out if they actually have an international-calibre left-handed power hitter.
Ultimately, whichever way Ireland go, the move to drop Balbirnie is an acknowledgement that his opening partnership with Paul Stirling has not worked as desired. In an interview at the time, Balbirnie confirmed that his decision to replace Kevin O’Brien atop the order back in 2021 was to allow Stirling to become the aggressor in Ireland’s opening partnership.
That simply has not happened. Since the end of the 2021 World Cup, Stirling’s average is seven runs below his career figure (20 vs 27) while his strike-rate has also come down (131 vs 135).
Despite his overall numbers dropping in the same period, Balbirnie has been in better form than Stirling, his good friend and now former T20 opening partner. It would have been a difficult conversation to alert him of the news.
Ireland don’t have enough depth to needlessly cast aside international-level talent. Someone, at some position in the order, will be given a chance to prove they can step up. As is always the case with new Irish players, they may well have to learn on the international stage. Time will be required to judge the merits of this move.
Until judgement can be passed, Ireland dropping their former captain will remain a risk. One with numbers and identifiable logic behind it, but a risk all the same.
Notes
In the hoopla of recognising the significance of dropping a former captain (well, half-dropping, seeing as he will still be in the ODI side) it can slip under the radar that Josh Little will not be on this tour. He is at the Caribbean Premier League, which clashes with pretty much every South Africa game.
Gavin Hoey will battle with Matthew Humphreys to be Ireland’s next main ODI spinner. Well, Andy McBrine will undoubtedly play, but his lack of wicket-taking form in white-ball cricket means there is a big chance for a youngster to step up and become the main man.
Fionn Hand is back! He almost certainly has benefited from Little’s absence to make both the T20 and ODI squads but hey, he’s a fun guy to watch.
In the Cricket Ireland announcement, selector Andrew White hinted that Morgan Topping and Liam McCarthy could well have been picked had they not been currently injured. Topping is a good player but a strange potential selection in that he’s a middle-order batter. Ireland don’t lack for those. Fast bowler McCarthy, though, is a bigger loss. It would have been very interested to see his additional half-yard of pace in this squad, especially with no Little. Instead, it genuinely looks like Hand or Craig Young will be Ireland’s quickest bowler on show. Mark Adair, Graham Hume, Young and Curtis Campher are the other seam bowling options. This tour won’t do much to develop Ireland’s fast bowling stocks.
Stephen Doheny is back in the ODI squad. He was previously dropped in 2023 after a technical flaw saw Ireland lose faith in him ahead of that year’s World Cup qualifiers. It’s good to see him back, even if this likely is just a back-up top order gig, given the need for cover with the games in the UAE (instead of at home). If interpro numbers mean anything, he has gotten a lot of starts this year without consistently converting into big scores.
The dropping of Balbo does seem sad, maybe the start of the gradual passing of the baton with Young McCarthy and Stirling being gone by 2027
Always had a soft spot for him having to get over a pair on test debut
But in reality his test and T20 numbers are decent but modest.
If Tucker is going to open, then would love to see Rock at 5 or 6, with a licence to hit and the security of being keeper