Form vs potential - what picking Foster over Mayes says about Ireland's selection policy
Much like England picked Shoaib Bashir on potential, Matthew Foster has been selected instead of Tom Mayes despite his recent First Class 10fer
In a way, it’s impossible for Ireland to select a Test squad on form.
It’s been nine months since they last played a Test, with only academy red ball games and a pair of First Class fixtures against West Indies U23 offering any sort of indicator ahead of this month’s Test vs Afghanistan.
Regardless, what little form there is has not been the deciding factor in the latest squad. Now more so than at any other juncture since the return to Tests, Ireland have picked instead on potential attributes, not results.
If form was the key factor, Northern Knights seamer Tom Mayes would be on the plane. In the recent First Class game played by Emerging Ireland against that underage Windies side, he took five wickets in both innings, recording match figures of 10-139.
Yet the South African-born bowler has not been rewarded with a call-up.
Instead, 24-year-old Matthew Foster has kept his place in the Test squad after being part of the 15-man group at Lord’s.
In that same First Class match vs the Windies, as Mayes worked his way to 10fer Foster recorded figures of 2-134 across two innings. This is not a call made on match form.
Instead, Ireland have identified a red ball attribute they believe is stronger in Foster than in his Knights teammate. Selectors believe Foster hits that heavy red ball length, six to eight metres away from a batter, more consistently, despite that recent discrepancy in result between him and Mayes.
That call has been made on watching Foster and Mayes go about their work in the Caribbean, where Heinrich Malan and former fast bowler Boyd Rankin were working with the players, and a recent outdoor training camp in Spain.
England recently picked a 20-year-old off-spinner, Shoaib Bashir, based on the belief that his high release point suited Indian conditions, rather than any stellar First Class record. Ireland aren’t a million miles off doing something similar here.
Prior to his Test debut this week, Bashir had played six First Class matches. Foster, four years Bashir’s senior, has also played six. Yet England did so out of choice, picking a youngster who has a lack of experience because of his age. Foster has little First Class experience because he’s Irish, not because he’s young.
But similar to Bashir, Foster has been picked because of an identifiable characteristic - namely his natural length - rather than any record of note. Rest assured, with Ireland analyst Scott Irvine working with Ireland’s seamers in Spain, and Malan being the type of coach he is, one who is receptive to analysis, this was almost certainly a decision based on in-house data collected by Irvine.
Mayes may well disagree with the assessment that Foster is more consistent with his desired length. He may well - and probably should - point to a recent First Class 10fer on a tour where everyone else struggled when questioning why he isn’t in the squad. But Ireland have made their bed; the above will have been outlined to Mayes when that difficult phone call from the selectors arrived.
Ireland have done this before, picking on attributes. They had to, really, before last year’s Tests given it was their first red ball action in four years. Matthew Humphreys, then 20 and a year removed from playing in an U19 World Cup, was picked because selectors wanted to blood a young spinner. They believed he had the character to succeed on a challenging tour of the subcontinent.
This attributes-based selection did not work. Humphreys struggled in the one Test he played and has not been in a senior Ireland squad since. He too was on the Emerging Ireland tour and he will be in the Wolves squad that travels to Nepal, alongside Foster and Mayes.
Such selection techniques don’t always work. Granted, the Humphreys call was based on mental attributes rather than physical, but it backfired. It is a cautionary tale that reminds us that, just because Foster impressed with his lengths in training, it doesn’t mean he will get off the plane in the UAE and bowl every ball in that desired area.
He might not even play. The only two frontline spinners in the squad, Andy McBrine and Theo van Woerkom, will feature given the spinning conditions in the Middle East. That leaves room for two seamers plus Campher in the bowling attack. Mark Adair and Craig Young will be the early favourites.
There may well come a day when Ireland play enough First Class and Test cricket not to have to gamble on what they’re seeing in uncompetitive environments. That day is not today and for now, Foster will get his chance.
Selection notes
The other significant selection call that raised eyebrows was the aforementioned spin attack. Only two frontline spinners in the UAE?
Based on previous Tests at Abu Dhabi, Irish officials believe the pitch won’t spin as much as what we’re seeing in India at the moment during England’s tour there. Given it’s a one-off Test, they have picked their spin duo of McBrine and van Woerkom with George Dockrell providing both bowling and batting cover.
As for why they’ve picked those two spinners, well McBrine remains their only out-and-out off-spinner now they’ve moved on from Simi Singh, while the selectors believe that van Woerkom’s natural length suits red ball more than white ball. In fact, the disappointing start to his white ball career, where he at times bowled too floaty in unhelpful conditions, has been pointed to as a positive for Test cricket where batters are less attacking.
Over in India, left-arm spinners such as Tom Hartley and Axar Patel have had red ball success as tall left-armers spearing the ball into the pitch, which goes somewhat against the van Woerkom floated length logic. But perhaps the different surfaces in the UAE mean this is not a concern.
I still don’t know why people react with surprise when Josh Little isn’t named in a red ball squad. He’s about to go and play in the IPL. It makes zero sense for him to condition himself to become Test ready, risk injury in a longer format in which he doesn’t play, and then be ruled out of his payday in Gujarat. The decision to rest him for the 50-over portion of the tour is with one eye on New York in June, to manage his workload ahead of that World Cup. He will, though, play in the T20s vs Afghanistan as Ireland demand their best XI to be available given it is a World Cup year.
Paul Stirling is still in the red ball squad despite the decision last year to sit out the Bangladesh Test. Despite his focus as white ball skipper, Stirling clearly still has a grĂ¡ for red ball, as shown by his decision to come back into the squad and play in Sri Lanka and Lord’s. He suffered a calf injury recently while sitting on the bench for Pretoria Capitals, but if that was in any way a concern he’d be nowhere near this red ball squad.
Predicted Ireland Test XI vs Afghanistan: James McCollum, PJ Moor, Andrew Balbirnie, Harry Tector, Paul Stirling, Curtis Campher, Lorcan Tucker, Mark Adair, Andy McBrine, Theo van Woerkom, Craig Young.
Ireland squads for tour of Afghanistan
Test: Mark Adair, Andrew Balbirnie (capt), Curtis Campher, George Dockrell, Matthew Foster, Graham Hume, Andy McBrine, Barry McCarthy, James McCollum, PJ Moor, Paul Stirling, Harry Tector, Lorcan Tucker, Theo van Woerkom, Craig Young.
ODI: Mark Adair, Andrew Balbirnie, Curtis Campher, Gareth Delany, George Dockrell, Matthew Foster, Graham Hume, Andy McBrine, Barry McCarthy, Neil Rock, Paul Stirling (capt), Harry Tector, Lorcan Tucker, Theo van Woerkom, Craig Young.
T20: Mark Adair, Ross Adair, Andrew Balbirnie, Curtis Campher, Gareth Delany, George Dockrell, Graham Hume, Josh Little, Barry McCarthy, Neil Rock, Paul Stirling (capt), Harry Tector, Lorcan Tucker, Ben White, Craig Young
For the Afghan test, is there a case for Paul Stirling opening the batting, given there should be less lateral movement in the early stages than in England or Ireland? Either Moor or McCollum would then miss out. You could then bring in George Dockrell to give an extra spin option besides improving the batting and fielding. Maybe Harry Tector and even Paul Stirling could contribute to the slow bowling. There might then be a case for Graeme Hume to play rather than Theo vW.
Would you see josh playing in the summer home test? (I also not shocked by his lack of selection given that he is getting franchise contracts left right and center )